Tear up every gold prediction and precious metals forecast that was made before March 1, 2025. Everything has changed with respect to the world’s favorite safe haven. If you’ve lost count of gold’s all-time highs, expert endorsements, soaring central bank demand, and the scores of analysts who are now frantically embracing the precious metal — you’re not alone. Gold seems to go “where it has never gone before” …. on A daily basis.
The Wall Street Journal has just announced that “Everyone is a Gold Bug Now!”[1] Indeed, gold is attracting more first-time buyers than ever before, and they’re not only moving money out of stocks and bonds but also cashing in crypto accounts to buy physical gold.
[1] https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/gold-bug-investing-36268c5a
Most global experts have “upped” their gold price predictions and forecasts with targets that suggest this rally has very steady and strong legs.
Gold is in Uncharted Territory
Gold prices have now eclipsed $3100/oz. This is unprecedented for the yellow metal as we find ourselves in the midst of an historic price surge that has seen 19 all-time high records set just in 2025 alone. As of this writing, gold is up over 38% in the past year and more than 90% over the past five years.
Amid gold’s historic run, stocks have faltered. The Dow Jones is down more than 450 points YTD. The Nasdaq is down well over 2000 points YTD, and the S&P 500 is down over 260 points YTD. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also both entered into correction territory in March.
According to NerdWallet, a market correction is a fall in value of at least 10% from a recent market or indices high. At its most basic level, market corrections are triggered because investors are more motivated to “sell” than to “buy.” The reasons for a longer-term decline includes the following:
- A Slowing Economy: If the economy is slowing or entering a recession, or investors are expecting it to slow, companies will earn less, so investors bid down their stocks.
- Lack of “Animal Spirits”: This old phrase refers to the surges of investor emotion and risk-taking during a bull market. As they see the chance for profits, people jump into the market, pushing stock prices up.
- Fear: In the stock market, the opposite of greed is fear. If investors think the market is going to fall, they’ll stop buying stocks, and sellers will have to lower their prices.
- Outside Events: This miscellaneous category includes everything else that might spook the market, such as wars, attacks, oil-supply shocks, and other events that aren’t purely economic.[1]
What is Driving the Unstoppable Gold Surge?
The Trump tariffs have been dominating economic headlines in 2025, and their impact on inflation, GDP, consumer sentiment, market volatility and the prospects of a recession have been actively fueling gold demand.
Worries Abound! From the fear of a broadening trade war and retaliatory tariffs — to rising consumer prices and supply chain challenges — financial uncertainty is now crippling Wall Street!
[1] https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-is-a-stock-market-correction-and-what-happens-in-a-crash
And according to a senior analyst at online trading platform Capital.com, the stock market’s pain is gold’s gain!
“While stocks falter, gold continues to shine. The metal’s status as a safe haven has been reinforced by tightening financial conditions, falling bond yields, and a weaker US dollar. As foreign demand for US assets drops due to lower yields, the environment becomes increasingly supportive for non-yielding assets like gold.”[1]
Gold’s safe haven appeal is also being fueled by geopolitical tensions as Israel is back in Gaza and Russia continues to launch drone attacks on Ukraine. And of course, the world’s central banks have been buying at unprecedented levels.
According to the World Gold Council
“Central banks’ insatiable appetite for gold reached a significant milestone in 2024. Having added 712t in the first three quarters of the year, central banks bought a further 333t in Q4 to bring the net annual total to 1,045t. As a result, they have extended their buying streak to 15 consecutive years, and, remarkably, 2024 is the third consecutive year in which demand surpassed 1,000t – far exceeding the 473t annual average between 2010-2021, and contributing to gold’s annual performance.”[2]
And despite record-high gold prices, the central bank gold grab has been historic as the world’s reserve banks are adding to their gold reserves at the fastest pace in history.
Experts Predict an Extended Gold Bull
Economists, analysts, and most major banking giants have been scrambling to update their gold projections. Not only have Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America all increased their gold price forecast — so have traders, refiners, miners, jewelry analysts and most macro models.
According to precious metals trader Heraeus Metals,
“Gold’s rally has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and strong investor demand. Given the current macroeconomic environment – particularly trade war uncertainties and central bank policies – this trend appears sustainable in the near term.”[3]
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/gold-price-record-april-tariffs-trump-economy-central-bank-etf-2025-3
[2] https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2024/central-banks#from-login=1
[3] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-sails-above-3100-uncharted-territory-us-tariffs-approach-2025-03-31/
Similarly, global asset management and financial services company, Macquarie Group, admits that gold’s strength took them by surprise:
“Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations. We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of $3,150 per ounce and our single point price high to $3,500 per ounce. President Trump’s rapid move to announce, if not always to enact, import tariffs has contributed to geopolitical uncertainty and boosted inflation expectations, helping push down front-end real rates and supporting gold in the face of periodic USD strength and initially reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.”[1]
And multiple experts think $4000/oz gold is not only feasible but likely including Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mick McGlone, Yardeni Research, and the Chief Executive Officer at DoubleLine, Jeffrey Gundlach who believes gold is experiencing a “very sharp, steep trajectory” that he does not expect to stop:
“I’d be so bold to say I think gold will make it to $4,000 … “I think that that’s in recognition of gold as a storehouse of value that’s more outside of the financial system, which seems to be in a state of flux at this point in time.”[2]
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-touches-new-record-as-latest-wall-street-prediction-sees-prices-reaching-3500-170903882.html
[2] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-going-to-reach-4-000-says-gundlach-he-also-puts-recession-probability-at-60-36b3f772
April 2nd is “Liberation Day” — Protect Your Money!
President Trump has dubbed Wednesday, “Liberation Day” where he is promising to roll out major new tariffs and levies on goods from other countries. The president has also indicated that he will impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries to level the “trade playing field” and end unfair trade practices by other countries.
According to Barron’s, it is a ‘make or break’ moment for the stock market:
“No one, perhaps not even Trump himself knows what’s to come. There’s hope that the levies will be small and targeted in their execution, but also reports that the administration is considering placing 20% tariffs across the board … For U.S. companies, the problem starts with earnings. Estimates for this year have slipped from about $272 at the start of the year to about $268 now, but high tariffs will almost certainly raise costs and eat into margins, suggesting that earnings have a lot more room to fall.”[1]
Specifically, the president mentioned new tariffs on the EU, Brazil, South Korea, India, and other countries with unfair or unbalanced trade policies toward the United States. All of this follows the announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported passenger cars (and automotive parts) last week.
“This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America. We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.”[2]
[1] https://www.barrons.com/articles/liberation-day-stock-market-selloff-89723759
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/trumps-promised-liberation-day-of-tariffs-is-coming-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-you.html
