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December 4, 2024 – ADP Jobs report data add to case for December Fed interest rate cut

Private-sector hiring continues to slow, but workers are finding pay increases for remaining in their current positions.

The U.S. economy saw softening private-sector job creation last month, adding to evidence of a slowing labor market heading into December that could boost the case for a final Federal Reserve rate cut.

Payroll-processing group ADP said Wednesday around 146,000 jobs were created in the private sector last month, a decrease from the downwardly revised tally of 188,000 in October.

Economists had expected ADP’s National Employment Report to show gains of around 166,000 as hiring slowed into the middle of the fourth quarter.

Investors are also likely to focus on wage and earnings details provided in the ADP release, which showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8% for so-called job stayers. That’s the first increase in more than two years for those workers who remained in their positions. 

Those seeking new roles saw pay gains of 7.2%, the lowest wage premium for changing jobs in more than three years.

“While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.” 

Earlier this week, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that October job openings rose to around 7.7 million position while the so-called quits rate edged higher, to 2.1%. The report suggested workers are still finding higher-paying roles even amid a broader slowdown in hiring.

Stock futures added to gains in the wake of the ADP release, with the S&P 500 called 18 points higher and the Nasdaq set for a 150-point advance at the start of trading. The Dow is priced for a 165-point gain.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields held steady at 4.271% following the release, while 2-year notes were last pegged at 4.2% following their biggest two-day pullback of the year.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.2% higher 106.58.

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