• High-grade, high-yield CDX indexes opened weaker on Monday
• Weak backdrop may force blue-chip firms to postpone bond sales

US gauges are showing their highest levels of credit risk this year Monday morning, as investors exhibit fresh concern about the state of the country’s economy in light of tariffs and cuts to the federal workforce.

As numerous investment-grade borrowers are poised to opt against issuing bonds Monday, the Markit CDX North American Investment Grade Index widened as much as 2.06 basis points to 53.54 — another 2025 high.

The gauge rises as credit risk climbs. The Markit CDX North American High Yield Index, which falls as credit risk increases, declined as much as 0.5 point to 106.4 — its lowest in six months.

Equities have opened the week with declines around the world amid worries about the US economic outlook. That after the Nasdaq 100 Index sank into correction territory on Friday, with a mixed jobs report released late last week unable to provide solace to investors.

If a US recession does materialize in 2025, which Barclays Plc sees as “improbable but no longer unthinkable,” it will be led by consumer weakness, strategists led by Bradley Rogoff and Dominique Toublan wrote in a note Friday.

“We increasingly view a large-scale pullback in spending driven by uncertainty about tariffs, DOGE layoffs and weakness in equities as a non-trivial tail risk.”

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